Dvizhuha

Dvizhuha (transliteration from Russian «Движуха» ) is name for the Russia-Ukraine war; perhaps, since 2022.02.24.

The same war is denoted also with Russian terms «Специальная военная операция» , «Спецоперация» («Spetsoperatsia»), «СВО».

In the first approach, these terms are considered as synonyms. However, term «Dvizhuha» is shorter than «Spetsoperatsia»; so, perhaps, term «Dvizhuha» should be used as the main notation.

Dvizhuha appears as continuation, prolongation of the Russian invasion into Ukraine that infolds since 2014.02.20.
The Russian invasion into Ukraine upgrades from the Hybrid war to the existential total war.

To year 2025, the Dvizhuha is already biggest war in the Human history after the World War II. In general, Dvizhuha appears as the barbarian, destructive invasion accompanied with genocide and the messy war crimes.

This article is an attempt to provide English equivalents of terms used in Russian propaganda of Russki mir and Putin world war. These equivalents are important fo the historic analysis, as English is declared to be main (and preferable) language of TORI.

In the most of cases, to import a Russian term, the transliteration is used rather than a translation. This practice helps to avoid confuses.

Russki mir (Русский мир) as symbol of Dvizhuha

Terminology

In order to confuse the people (in particula, the orks, id eat, the soldiers who perform the Dvizhuha), in Russian propaganda, term «war» is almost not used to denote this war. Such a practice match the family name «Путин» of the Russian dictator, its root refers to words «путаница», «путать» that refer "to put in confuse".

The confused soldiers are easier to use as a cannon fodder.

Such a soldier is denoted also with terms «mobik» («мобик»), «ork» («орк»), «Rashodnik» («Rashodnik»).

These terms are transliterated from Russian, as no appropriate English analogies are found.

In general, in the most of cases, the new terms appeared in a modern language are better to transliterate than to translate, while the meaning of the term is not yet well established. This helps to avoid ambiguities and confusions.

Goals of Dvizhuha

The primary goal of Dvizhuha is to dispel the boredom of the usurper and his closest accomplices ; they are boring in the stagnation.

The secondary goal is violation of the international agreements (in particular, the Budapest memorandum and related treaties), confirming reputation of Moscovia as a terrorist state, committing of war crimes and forming, education, training of millions of war criminals. They understand, that at the political changes in Russia, the accomplices of the putin's regime will face serious accusations ; therefore the orks remain loyal to the usurper.

The important goal of the Dvizhuha is money laundering on the military contracts, saving the dictators's accomplices from bankruptcy (see «Rosatom», «Uralvagonzavod», «ZavodSverskova», etc.)

For the executors of Dvizhuha, the motivation is possibility to kill, to robe, to rape Ukrainians and to send to their relatives the expensive harvest, see «2022.04.02.Мародеры» (In Russian), «Bucha», «Irpin».

Following the Rule of Newspeak, the Russian propaganda suggests completely different goals of the Dvizhuha. As the primary goal, the need to seise new colonies (Ukraine and Belaus) is declared. The Russian people is declared to be divinely chosen that therefore shoud dominate other nations .

In the Russian propaganda, for Russia, the Dvizhuha is promised to be a kind of a small victorious war (Маленькая победоносная война), see «SimonianZa2» (in Russian).
However, the war happens to be neither small, nor victorious for Russia.

The Dvizhuha is expected to trigger the collapse of the Moscovia empire, as it happened after the "small victorious war" of 1905.
In century 20, the Russian empire collapses within 12 gears after the "small victorious war" against Japan.
Following the analogy, in century 21, the putin's pahanat may collapse in 12 years since the beginning of the full-scale Dvizhuha, id est, roughly, in year 2024. The similar estimate appears in the independent statistical historic models for the «Duration».
The Collapse of RF, as the expected result of the Dvizhuha. The collapse can be considered as one of goals of the Russian usurper, see «Jinping», «PutinConspirology», «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут» (In Russian).
In this interpretation, the expansion of China to North Eurasia also can be considered as one of goals of the Dvizhuha.

\( L \!=\! 0.8 d^2\)

\( L \!=\! 0.6 d^2\)

      График спецоперации

GraphikSpetsoperatsii

GraphikSpetsoperatsii is transliterate of Russian term «График спецоперации»; it refers to the graphic representation of the most important parameter that refers to the Dvizhuha, namely, the amount of Russian soldiers, orks, demilitarized and denazifid in the Dvizhuha, see picture at right.

Existence of GraphikSpetsoperatsii is postulated by the Russian propaganda in the following context:
«Специальная военная операция идет в строгом соответствии с графиком, по плану.» .
(Dvizhuha unfolds following the GraphikSpetsoperatsii, by the plan.)

The amount of Russian cannon fodder spent in the war against Ukraine, is measured in orks (term «Rashodnik» («Расходник») has similar meaning). Number \(L\) ("Loss") of orks demilitarized and denazified at the Dvizhuha is extrapolated as quadratic function of time \(d\) ("days") measured in days since the beginning of year 2022. The two curves are drawn:
\( L = 0.8 d^2 ~\) and
\( L = 0.6 d^2 ~ \)
To year 2025, the estimate of the Russian military loss remains between these two curves; to year 2024, this estimate is shown with third thin dark curve. To 2025, the estimate follows the same trend. Since 2024, the picture at right is not updated.

In general, the propaganda does not use wrong statements that reveals the bad will and bad methods of the owner of the propagandistic resource. For this reason, the concept of existence of the GraphikSpetsoperatsii is considered in TORI seriously.

Significant part of the Russian army is lost during first months of the Dvizhuha . Then, the consumption of the cannon fodder gradually increases. The same 2022 year, in order to continue the aggression, the Russia dictator declares the «Partial mobilization» («Частичная мобилизация», «Могилизация», «Mogilization»)

2022.09.22, Наталья Ключевская , answering questions about the Partial mobilization fails to answer the most important question about the Partial mobilization:

What is difference between «mobilization» and «partial mobilization»?

Apparently, term Partial mobilization refers to genocide, an attempt to destroy both Russia and Ukraine in the total war. Even if the Russian army succeed to destroy Ukraine, the Russian offees have plan to continue war, fighting against the NATO countries, see «Весь мир будет наш» («Soon the whole world will be ours») «Всех убьём, всех ограбим», «От Аляски до Одесы» (in Russian).
Evidences are observed of the intents to divide the world by parts; it includes the apparent collaboration of Putin with Donald Trump, see «Trump as KGB agent». Thai collaboration and even friendship look similar to the friendship between Hitler and Stalin in 1939-1940, see «Molotov-Ribbentrop pact» and the cartoon at right.

The so-called «peaceful negotiations» between Putin and Trump look as their attempt to boost the Putin world war, to scale it up, to extent it to the Central Eurasia and North America, see «Donroe Doctrine». Such an interpretation follows from the translations from Newspeak of statements by Putin and Trump, following the Rule of Newspeak.

In yeas 2022-2025, the Dvizhuha scales up following the Russian GraphicSpetsoperacii and the American TrumptyDumpty practice; see also «Annexation of Canada», «Annexation of Greenland», «Annexation of Panama», «Donroe Doctrine»), «TrumpForever»).
To year 2025, following the graphic, the total amount of demilitarized and denazified Russian orks approaches one million. If the trend remains, to year 2045, the Russian military could approaches 30 millions orks and, to year 2075, the Russian loss approaches the total population of Russia. It is very bold extrapolation, but, to year 2025, no other forecast for the Dvizhuha is found in publications observed in the free access.

In 2025, the consume of the Russian cannon fodder in the Dvizhuha seems to stabilize near the level of 1000 orks per day. This consumption can be interpreted as the minimum level of the Russian military loss, at which the Russian dictator no longer gets bored. The risky extrapolation of the same consumption indicates, that during 21st century, the most of the Russian male population will be consumed un the war. This hypothesis is used as a base point in sci-fi utopia «Tartaria». In other historic models, the collapse of RF happens earlier, see «Duration».

The alternative interpretation assumes, that the Dvizhuha does not not follow the extrapolation, that the Russian usurper initially planned the Dvizhuha to lead to a victory, not to defeat of the Russian troops in Ukraine.
This alternative concept can be denoted with term «Fuhrer is fool» («Фюрер дурак»); see also «Триста тысяч москалей», in Russian).
To year 2025, it is difficult to reject the alternative interpretation on the base of publications observed. The concept «Fuhrer is fool» («Фюрер дурак») is not constructive: It is safer to overestimate the cunning and cruelty of the enemy than to underestimate them.

Historic models

Editor considers History as science, while its concepts satisfy the TORI axioms. Other concepts (that do not satisfy these axioms) are qualified as Religion, Art, custom and/or propaganda - even if the authors qualify their result as historic. The statement «History does not tolerate the subjunctive mode» (or its equivalent) appeared in some research is sufficient to disqualify it, as it does not allow its refutation and therefore does not satiny the 3d of the TORI axioms (it postulate that the concept is refutable).

Dvishuha, as heaviest war during time of Editor, deserves certain attention and scientific analysis.

In TORI, several historic models are related to Dvizhuha.

One of them is denoted with term «Duration» and refers to collapse of an empire, namely to case, when the Separation of powers is nullified eliminated at the level of cereal law. According to that model, in approximately 15 years since such a nullification, the empire collapses.

In case of putin's Russia, the nullification of Constitution happens in year 2020, see «Putin forever». Then in this model, the collapse of RF is expected to happen approximately in year 2035. The collapse of RF before year 2028 or its existence after year 2042 should be interpreted as a refutation of the model. If the model be verified with the collapse of RFm then the date of the collapse should allow to adjust the estimates for the parameters of the model, mean value and dispersion of lifetime of an empire since the elimination of Separation of powers.

Branches of power, 2025

The case of the USA (see «Collapse of USA») also may fall into the range of applicability of the model, if Donald Trump achieves the «TrumpForever», cutting all the branches of power except the Presidential, as it is shown in the cartoon at right. This would crash the American democracy and set zero at the time scale for the Duration of the USA.

The model does not say anything about channel of the decay of an empire. In the case of Russia, the Dvizhuha can be considered as one of these channels and, perhaps, the dominant chancel.

Another model is mentioned above; it is GraphicSpetsoperatsii. In this model, for the Dvizhuha, the daily consumption of the Russian cannon fodder grows approximately linearly. This leads to the quadratic growth of the cumulative loss. The bold (and not yet justified) extrapolation of the GraphicSpetsoperatsii for twenty years ahead (since 2022.01.01) indicates that to year 2042, the total Russian loss becomes of order of \( 0.6*7305^2 \approx 32 \) million orks demilitarized and denazified in the Dvizhuha. This is of order of total loss of the USSR in World War II. In century 21, Russia is much smaller than the USSR during the World War II; so, this loss is expected to cause the collapse of RF. In such a way, for Dvizhuha, the GraphicSpetsoperatsii shows the qualitative agreement with the statistic model «Duration».

The estimate for the year of possible termination of Dvizhuha can be reduced taking in to account that not so many Rissians agree to become rashodniks, orks and to die for the ambitions of the cruel dictator.
The evidences of the election fraud in Russia indicates, that of order of a million electors vote for putin and his party Edro; other ballots for these impostors are surplused by the corrupted election committees. Would the putinistd be more numerous, the maxima at the histograms for the Churov comb (Пила Чурова) and the Pamfilova peak (Пик Памфиловой) could not be so sharp. This model assumes that ballots of putin's accomplices are not neglected; these random votes would spread the sharp maxima at the histograms.

To year 2025, the estimated error of the predictions by the historic models is high; the error of estimate of Duration is of order of Duration. The similar error (50% of the value) had the estimate for remaining time of existence of the USSR described in article «Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984» («Просуществует ли Советский Союз до 1984 года») by Amalrik Andrei Aekseevich (Амальрик Андрей Алексеевич); his upper estimate for the duration was 1984-1969=15 years instead of observed 1991-1969=22 years.

Publications about Dvizhuha are expected to help to confirm and/or to improve and/or to reject the historic models mentioned (or even formulate the new historic models). Also, what is much more important, elaborate, develop and debug tools for creating/testing historic models.

To year 2025, this branch of historic sincere is underceveleoped; the most of models are not clear (Editor cannot reproduce the deduction) and many of them happen to be just wrong, see «Предсказания революций» (in Russian).

Gallery

Warnig

The part of content of this article partially overlaps with content of other articles mentioned below among the Keywords. Such an overlapping is necessary to reveal possible contradictions (if any) in interpretations of historic events.

References

Keywords

«2022.04.02.Мародеры», «2022.04.26.Kontraktniki», «2022.05.15.Кадыровцы», «2025.06.01.Павутына», «Annexation of Crimea», «Any weapon», «Bavovna», «Budapest memorandum», «Buffer Zone», «Cannon fodder», «Collapse of RF», «Colorad», «Corruption», «Demilitarization», «Demilitarization and denazification», «Denazification», «Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism», «Designate Russia as terrorist state», «Duration», «Dvizhuha», «Existential war», «Fascism», «[[]]», «Genocide», «Hague», «Katyn-2», «Kolorad», «MH17», «Money laundering», «Moscovia», «New World Order», «Nuremberg-2», «Ork», «Pahanat», «Payback», «Putin world war», «Rashodnik», «Russian invasion into Ukraine», «Small victorious war», «Ork», «Payback», «Realpolitik», «Russki mir», «SimonianZa2», «Total war», «Transfer of hostilities to aggressor territory», «Trump as KGB agent», «Usurpation», «Vagner», «Valdai Cluster», «War crime», «Zov»,

«А нас то за что», «Аннексия Крыма», «Бавовна», «Банда Вагнера», «Будапештский меморандум», «Буча», «Валдайский Дворец Путина», «Варварство», «Вертикаль власти», «Весь мир будет наш», «Военное преступление», «Воткинский завод», «Всех убьём, всех ограбим», «[[]]», «Геноцид», «Государственный террор», «График спецоперации», «Движуха», «Демилитаризация», «Демилитаризация и денацификация», «Денацификация», «Завод Свердлова», «Ирпень», «Кадыров сбил Ембраер», «Катынь-2», «Коррупция», «Любое оружие», «Маленькая победоносная война», «Многотысячные потери», «Могилизация», «Московия», «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут», «Нефтяной оптимум», «Новый Мировой Порядок», «Нога русского солдата», «Операция Молния Зевса», «Орк», «Орск», «Остов Крым», «От Аляски до Одесы», «Отмывание денег», «Паханат», «Перенос боевых действий на территорию страны агрессора», «Письмо папе на фронт», «[[]]», «Пособник путинского режима», «[[]]», «Пропаганда», «Путинский план спецоперации», «Пушечное мясо», «Распад РФ», «Российские военные потери», «Россия полностью уничтожила Мариуполь», «Русский мир», «Санитарная Зона», «Специальная военная операция идет в строгом соответствии с графиком», «Спецоперация», «Ст.110 УК Украины», «Ст.353 УК РФ», «Террор», «Тотальная война», «Триста тысяч москалей», «Узурпация», «Умиротворение агрессора», «Уралвагонзавод», «Фашизм», «Экзистенальная война», «Я бомбил Дрезден»,