Collapse of RF

Forecast from y.2010

Collapse of RF (Распад РФ) is event, expected since the beginning of century 21.

The terroristic activity of the Russian fuhrer Vladimir Putin is expected to cause collapse of the Russian Federation and desintegration of Russia to several independent and not so friendly countries - in a similar way as it had happened to the USSR, see «Collapse of the USSR».

The collapse of RF is supposed to be boosted with the Putin world war and the the Nullification of the Russian Constitution, id est the elimination of separation of powers that allow the Russian usurper putin to keep the superior power in country «forever» - until the collapse of RF. Since year 2025, the similar phenomena are considered to be possible in the USA, see «TrumpForever».

Many predictions about Collapse of RF are collected in article «Предсказания революций» (In Russian). Editor could not reproduce the calculus used in these forecasts. To year 2025, many of them already happened to be wrong.
Hypothesis that RF remains until the end of century 21 is used as main plot of utopia Tartaria.

In statistic model «Duration», RF collapses approximately in year 2035 (after approximately 15 years since the nullification of the Constitution in 2020): not before year 2028 and no later than 2042.

Corruption, terror and separatism

The total corruption of the Russian administration in century 21 is recognised as a scientific fact. In Russia, the Corruption not only gets the wide scale and high level, but it becomes the common, usual phenomenon, that characterises the entire life of the Russian officials.

The pahanat, VertikalVlasti (Transliteration of Вертикаль власти, kind of diktatorship) of the Fuhrer and his KGB mafia dismount the functions of the state organizations. Even the Duma, Parliament is no anymore place for discussion, but just a theatre, where the participant are supposed just to clap in favour of any suggestion by fuhrer.

The federal organisations cannot protect the regions from crime, nor from natural disasters, because the funds assigned from the Federal budget are washed-out to the offshore by the money laundering (See also Panama Papers). The regions have no need to stay together.

The huge Russian military losses in the Putin world war indicate, that the Federal army will not be able to protect regions from the external invasion; and there is no indication that any invader can be worse to the Russian population, that the Federal troops. The sadism is popular in the Russian military troops, and the soldiers consider their officers as enemies.

In particular, the doubts about honesty refer to the nacguardia (нацгвардия), that seem to be extremely numerous, highly secret troops created for the protection of fuhrer since 2016. Many authors indicate, that the only a terror can be expected from such a troops.

In such a way, the regions are interested to separate from the so-called "centre", that refers to the state power localised mainly in Moscow. It seems, that the honest referendum in any region of Russia, about separation from Russia and joining to any of civilised neighbour countries may have pretty definite result; the majority of population want to leave from Russia, with their homes, their fields, and without to move anywhere. For this reason, even attempts to investigate the public opinion with respect to separation from Russia, in any of Russian regions, are qualified as separatism, extremism and brutally suppressed.

Putin world war

The important push forward of centrifugal processes in Russia is related with the Putin world war and, especially, with the Russian invasion into Ukraine since year 2014. The breaking of many international agreements at once by Russia is important precedent, that can be used to justify similar actions with respect to Russia; these actions may refer not only to the territories occupied by Russia in century 21, Abkhazia and South Ossetia since 2008 at the Russian invasion into Georgia and Crimea and Parts of Donbass at the Russian invasion into Ukraine, but also other regions.

The Putin's claim that "Crimea is Russian" causes reciprocal claims that the "Kuban is Ukrainian" and "Königsberg is German". As for the last, the history of Europe during many centuries show that Koenigsberg is much more German, than Crimea is Russian. In such a way, Königsberg may become a "first drop" in the process of disintegration of Russia. .

Duration

Likelihihood density of Duration for RF since y.2020

Article «Duration» describes the 3 statistical models of collapse of an empire since the Separation of powers is eliminated at the level of the Federal Law. The models are based on 5 events observed in England of Oliver Cromwell, in France de Napoleon, in Italia di Mussolini, in Germany of Hitler, and in the USSR of Brezhnev. At Moscovia, the nulling («Обнуление») of the Constitution happens in 2020; at the moment of loading of this article, the case of RF is not yet competed.

The likelihood density for the duration of a next empire since the elimination of Separation of powers, measured in years is shown in figure at right for 3 different models.
The blue bars refers to the cases mentioned above; they are taken into account to plot the curves.
The yellow bars refer to the values from the sci-fi; they are not taken into account in the calculus.
The 3 models give similar predictions: since the usurpation, the empire is expected to last from 7 to 22 years.
All the 3 models give similar predictions for the Collapse of RF: it is expected to happen approximately between years 2028 and 2042. Perhaps no more detailed prediction can be made on the base of the 5 events of nulling of separation of powers that already are completed.

The similar prediction may become possible for China, North Korea and the USA - as soon as they prescribe the dictatorship, the lifetime rilling of the same person, at the level of their constitution; then they'll fall into range of applicability of the models. For the case of the USA, such an option is considered in article «TrumpForever» and in movie «CivilWar2024». This case is announced in more details in section «Not only RF» below.

Russian military loss

\( L \!=\! 0.8 d^2\)

\( L \!=\! 0.6 d^2\)

      График спецоперации

Since year 2022, the Putin world war becomes the biggest war in Hunan history after the World War II. This part of the Putin world war is denoted with terms «Dvizhuha» («Движуха»), «Spetsoperation» («Специальная военная операция», «Спецоперация»).

It is strong escalation of the Russian invasion into Ukraine, it converts from the Hybrid war to the full-scale total war, existential war.

This «Spetsoperation» develops according to the graphic. It is denoted with term «График спецоперации» and shown in figure at right.
Existence of this graphic is postulated by the Russian offees .
The Russian military loss, id est, number \(L\) of Russian orks demilitarized in the war against Ukraine, is extrapolated as quadratic function of time \(d\) measured in days since the beginning of year 2022. The two curves are shown:

\( L = 0.8 d^2 ~ \), blue curve   and

\( L = 0.6 d^2 ~ \), yellow curve.

To year 2025, the estimate happens to be close to the yellow curve.
No other version of the «График спецоперации» is observed in the Russian official publications.
To year 2025, the mean consumption of the Russian cannon fodder becomes to be of order of 1000 orks/day.

The evidences of the Election fraud in Russia indicate, that of order of a million Russians vote for the Russian usurper and his party; other ballots for these terrorists are put-in by the corrupted electoral committees. Such a concept shows good agreement with evidences of the total corruption at putin's Russia .

These speculations indicates that after few years of the war, the Russian cannon fodder will be exhausted; then the RF is expected to collapse.

This estimate shows qualitative agreement with estimates from the models «Duration».

It will be interesting to compare the forecasts with later a posteriori publications about the expected event.

David Satter

David Satter

2016.06.17, Yuri Terehov (Юрий Терехов) indicates that David Satter in his book entitled «The Less You Know the Better You Sleep» (see picture at right) collects evidences of the mass terror of Moscovia since the USSR.

From the description, the reparation of Moscoiva, its conversion to a civilized country seems to be impossible, and the Collapse of RF seems to be unavoidable. No date is specified when the Collapse of RF is expected to happen. So, the analysis is difficult to interpret the description of the book as a Scientific concept.

As a «Zeroth hypothesis», it is assumed that the analysis of the book indicates that the Collapse of RF is expected to happen during century 21. (The same hypothesis is used as basic assumption of utopia «Tartaria»).

Maps

Several authors suggest forecasts for the map of North Eurasia with new countries that are expected to be created there. Some of these maps are collected below.

Only a lazy observer failed to suggest a forecast for the Moscovia map, what it might look like after the collapse of RF.

Not only RF

Donroe Doctrine

Criminal tandem

After the RF, the next candidate for the collapse seems to be the USA.

Since year 2025, the aggressive rehtodic by American President Donald Trump basically follows the aggressive rethorovs of Stalin, Adolf Hitelr, Putin and their accomplices. In the first approach, their public declaration allow the translation from Newspeak. Donald Trump is qualified as liar, as it is shown in the cartoon below.

The problem of the USA is not just Donald Trump; the bigger problem is that there is no request for the truth in the society ; the true is not requested by the most of the people.

The permanent misinformation may cause the collapse of any democracy, even that of the USA. It is mentioned at least since year 2024

Trump and Putin are considered as a «criminal tandem» , see the cartoon at right.

Donald Trump acts as he would be a KGB agent and agent of China; his trade war looks as a huge opportunity for China .

The American empire is seen to decline . It seems to be unavoidable at the corruption of the top of the administration and the passive approval by the most of the society.

To year 2025, there are still some hopes that neither TrumpForever nor the Donroe Doctrine be realised, that Donald Trump fails to nullify the American costiturion eliminating the Separation of powers. Then after Donald Trump, the USA may return to the way of democracy and civilization. In such a case, the model «Duration» does not yet apply to the USA.

Warning

Evidences of the approving Collapse of RF are collected and analyzed in TORI with Scientific goals.

The extrajudicial executions of Russian offees does not belong to the set of these goals.
More civilized ways to deal with accomplices of the putin regimen are considered in articles «Payback» (in Russian), «Hague», «Nuremberg-2».

The analysis suggested is not an attempt to prolong the agony of the putin's Russia.
The analysis suggested is not an attempt to boost the Collapse of RF.

The same applies to the USA. If Americans decide to convert the peaceful democratic USA to aggressive monarchy, to destroy the USA , then no scientific analysis can help them.

But Editor keeps his right (and even duty) to call things with their proper names, to suggest definitions for euphemisms and other ambiguous terms, to construct historic models and to compare their predictions to a posteriori observations.

References

2014.12.15. http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/12/15/2014/will-russia-collapse-ruble ANTONIA OPRITA.Will Russia Collapse With the Ruble? DEC 15, 2014 | 12:35 PM EST.

2015.01.09. http://www.businessinsider.com/russias-economic-collapse-2015-1 Russia's Downgrade Paints A Horrific Picture Of Economic Collapse. THE TELEGRAPH, JAN. 9, 2015, 7:43 PM.

2015.01.27. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-economy-wont-collapse-by-charles-wyplosz-2015-01 CHARLES WYPLOSZ. Why Russia’s Economy Will Not Collapse. JAN 27, 2015 25

2015.02.20. https://www.stratfor.com/video/preview-decade-forecast-2015-2025 David Judson, George Friedman. Decade Forecast 2015-2025. February 20, 2015 | 16:48 GMT

2015.02.27. http://rt.com/usa/234983-stratfor-decade-forecast-russia/ Collapse of Russia will prove major test for US – Stratfor. 27, 2015 15:18. .. According to the forecast, Russia’s territorial losses will not be limited to the European part of the country. Its control over the North Caucasus is also predicted to “evaporate,” while maritime regions in Russia’s Far East will “move independently” to the countries they are “closely linked to” – namely China, Japan, and the US. Additionally, Karelia will “seek to rejoin” Finland. The US think-tank, sometimes referred to as a “shadow CIA” due to its employment of former CIA analysts, also warns that this time Russia's alleged tendency of solving problems with "secret police" won't work, and the Federal Security Service will be unable to rescue the country. ..

2015.03.17. http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/03/17/has-russias-agony-begun/ LILIA SHEVTSOVA. Has the Russian System’s Agony Begun?

2015.07.13. http://imrussia.org/en/opinions/2327-garry-kasparov-the-only-difference-between-the-system-now-and-a-totalitarian-one-is-the-absence-of-mass-repression Leonid Martynyuk. Garry Kasparov: “The only difference between the system now and a totalitarian one is the absence of mass repression.” 13 July 2015. .. in Putin’s Russia, totally thuggish, senseless, malicious, and uneducated people are coming to the fore. This is the law of natural selection in degenerating systems. Soon it will turn out that even these people are too intellectual, and they will be replaced by absolute madmen. This is all related to the machinery of power, and specifically to Putin and his inner circle, because Putin’s power is absolute and is objectively comparable to that which Stalin had.

2015.08.13. http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/aug/13/river-fire-burst-pipeline-moscow-russia-video?CMP=fb_gu Moscow river catches fire after pipeline bursts – video. Thursday 13 August 2015 20.11 BST

2015.10.26. http://azeridaily.com/news/12264 Sasha Sotnik: ‘Russian Empire lives out its last years’ (Exclusive). 2015, 26 october — 12:31

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_Russian_financial_crisis

2016.04.27. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9miODthq0kQ Аналитическая служба новостей. В студии АСН Тарас Чорновил. Published on Apr 27, 2016. .. Крим ми можемо повернути тільки за фактом розпаду Росії. ..

2019.11.12. https://www.volgograd.kp.ru/online/news/3668729/ НАТАЛЬЯ ГЛАЗУНОВА. Четыре года и нет завода: волгоградский блогер снял убийственное видео о ВГТЗ. Александр Блинков вновь пролетел над останками «тракторного» и сравнил, что изменилось с 2016-го [видео].

2025.01.31. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/us-news-california-secession-independent-country-leave-united-states-heres-what-the-us-constitution-says/articleshow/117792940.cms Is California secession possible? Here's what the US Constitution says SECTIONSIs California secession possible? ET OnlineLast Updated: Jan 31, 2025, 06:41:00 PM IST

2025.04.08. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxg5p4JV8W8 The Roman Empire Reveals How Russia Will Collapse // Paul Warburg // pr 8, 2025 // Empires rise and fall, and Russia is just one in a long string of failed empires over human history. // Let's talk about the Russian economy, and how it's holding up as Russia wages its war against Ukraine. I discuss Russia's "war chest", the collapse of the ruble, inflation, and how Vladimir Putin is running out of cash.

2025.10.19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omJeH4YPaK8 ロシアが500億ドルの訴訟に敗訴―食料も弾薬も尽き、革命の爆発は避けられない！// #ロシア #プーチン #革命 // ロシアが500億ドルの訴訟で敗訴！経済崩壊が進み、国民の不満が爆発寸前。食料も弾薬も尽きた今、ロシア国内で革命が起きるのは時間の問題だ。プーチン政権の行方は？世界が注目する歴史的瞬間を詳しく解説

Keywords

«Annexation of Crimea», «Bigpuf», «Bolshevism», «Collapse of RF», «Collapse of USA», «Corruption», «Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism», «Fascism», «Duration», «Hague», «KGB», «Moscovia», «Nuremberg-2», «Putin and Hitler», «Putin world war», «Revolution», «Russian invasion into Georgia», «Russian invasion into Ukraine», «Russian invasion into Syria», «Separatism», «Stop Putin», «Terror», «USSR», «Vladimir Putin»,

«А нас то за что», «График спецоперации», «Движуха», «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут», «Путинская мировая война», «Распад РФ», «Спецоперация», «[[]]»,