Duration5




Duration5
is update of article «Duration»[7]. Term Duration may refer to some historic model of collapse of empires.
Here, Duration \(D\) is time between the two events:
A. Some empire at the level of Federal Law abolishes, nullifies the separation of powers
B. The empire collapses
Historic dates of nulling of separation of powers and of the following collapse by documents [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] are collected in the table below:
\(i\) | country | nulling | collapse | days | \(~ D_i\) (y.) | refs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | England of Cromwell | 1653.12.16 | 1661.04.23 | 2685 | 07.3513 | [8][9] |
2 | France de Napoléon | 1802.08.04 | 1815.11.20 | 4856 | 13.2953 | [10][11] |
3 | Italia di Mussolini | 1928.05.17 | 1947.12.27 | 7163 | 19.6116 | [12][13] |
4 | Germany of Hitler | 1933.03.24 | 1945.05.08 | 4428 | 12.1235 | [14][15] |
5 | Soviet Union | 1977.10.07 | 1991.08.20 | 5065 | 13.8675 | [16][17] |
6 | RF of putin | 2020.03.11 | 2028-2042 | 3k-7k | 8 - 22 | [18][not yet] |
The first 5 rows of this table table are used to estimate parameters of two historic models described below.
The 6th row is used for the historic forecast about Russia.
The table above us used ti build-up the models described in this article.
Introduction
The first documented historic forecasts refers to the Bible [19]. Since that, the tradition of forecasts is that the way of generation of the forecast is huffed from the readers. One may hear carefully the forecast of one or even coverall polytologists, but cannot reveal the basic assumptions used to construct the model presented and, as cannot repeat the calculus used to generate the forecast.
The most serious (from point of vies of Editor) forecasts from centuries 20-21 are:
Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984 (Просуществует ли Советский Союз до 1984 года) by Andrei Amalrik [20] (1969)
Moscow2042 («Москва2042») by Vladimir Voinovich [21] (1986, Войнович Владимир Николаевич. Москва2042)
Russia2028 by Semen Skrepetski ( Россия2028 by Скрепецкий Семён)[22] (2019).
Even in these forecasts, the deduction is hidden from the reader. More forecasts are collected in article «предсказания революций» (in Russian); most of them happened to be just wrong. Usually, author(s) of any forecast do not describe the model, in which the prediction is deduced; so, the reader cannot reproduce the calculus. For this reason, the forecasts are not considered as scientific concepts, at least by the serious historical scientists.
On the other hand, Editor consider History as science. Any science should provide concepts that can be verified and cane rejected on bu the future research and the observations. Any Science should provide models, that can be confirmed and can be rejected (Third of the TORI axioms). This article describes two such models. Both are based on historical documents that cause no doubts in the observed publications; to, any colleague can reproduce the calculus for any of these two models.
There are many cases, when the separation of powers established in the legislation lead to a prosper, democratic and stable state.
There are many cases of breakdown of an empire due to wars or internal putches. There are many cases, when the revolutionary established state converts to a dictatorship; often such a dictatorship pretends to be a democracy.
En fin, there are many cases of relatively stable monarchies and dictatorsips stable at the scale centuries.
But, duding past few centuries, there are not so many case, when a formally democratic state at the level of the Federal Law denounces the separation of powers. 6 such cases are noted in Table 1 above.
Editor finds no case, then, after such a nullification of the Federal Law, the Duration of the state happens to be longer than 20 years. This article is an attempt to generalize this observation as a scientific model; even two such models. The last 6th row in the table revers to the case, that is not yet finished and can be used for the testing of the models. The last case is expected to verify, to confirm or to refute, to negate the models.
Model First (linear time scale)
The first model is based I the following postulate:
Assume that Durations for all human civilizations, societies are distributed independently and have the same Gassian (normal) distribution with some mean value \(D_0\).
We have no ab initio model for the collapses of an empire the pretends to be democratic; so, we do not know value of \(D_0\). I try go get as much as possible from the empyrics.
From the first 5 rows of Table 1, we can estimate values \(D_0\) as mean value of the duration observed.
For the sample with \(N\) cases, the likelihood density \(f(t)\) for \(D_0\) to have value \(t\) is expressed through the Student Distribution with \(N-1\) degree of freedom:
\( \displaystyle f(t)= \frac{1}{v} \mathrm{Student}_{N-1}\!\left( \frac{t-\tilde D}{v} \right) \)
\( \displaystyle \tilde D = \frac{1}{N} \sum_{i=1}^N D_i \approx 13.249838 \) (years)
\(\displaystyle v = \sqrt{ \frac{1}{N(N\!-\!1)} \sum_{i=1}^N \left(D_i-\tilde D\right)^2 } \approx ~ 1.961094 \) (years)
The approximate values at the right hand sides of the equations refer to the estimates for the first \(N=5\) values from the table above. In order to simplify the tracing of the calculus, the 6 decimal digits are kept; however, only the first two of three digits may have sense for the historical estimates.
The resulting likelihood density \(f(t)\) is shown in figure at right.
The five blue bars show the 5 observed values of the Duration.
The two yellow bars show the values for the RF (Moscovia of century 21) taken from the sci-fi [21][22]. These "yellow" values are not taken into account at the calculus; but they shows what do the artists expect for the 6ht row of the table above - as soon as the case will be completed. These estimates appears from dates specified in the sci-fi; both the dates were fixed before nullification of the Russian Constitution in 2020. In this sense the "yellow" estimate are independent from the model described here.
Case of \(N\) observations refers to function \(\mathrm{Student}_{N-1}\). For this function, the dispersion is
\( \displaystyle \mathrm{Dispersion}_N=\int_{-\infty}^\infty \mathrm{Student}_{N-1}(x)\ x^2 \ \mathrm d x = \frac{N-1}{N-3} \)
Then, then, the mean-square deviation for the estimate \(\tilde D\) from the "true" historic constant \(D\) appears
\(\displaystyle w=v \sqrt{\mathrm{Dispersion}_N} = v \sqrt{\frac{N-1}{N-3}} = \sqrt{ \frac{1}{N(N\!-\!3)} \sum_{i=1}^N \left(D_i-\tilde D\right)^2 ~} \approx 2.773406 \) (years)
The formula sows why the 3 historic cases would not be sufficient to estimate the mean-square deviation of mean value \(\tilde D\) from the "true value" \(D_0\).
In our case, roughly, the estimate \(\tilde D\) may deviate from the "true value" \(D_0\) for a quantity of order of 3 years.
Each new case is expected to deviate from the the "true value" \(D_0\) for a quantity of order of
\(\displaystyle T=\sqrt{ \frac{1}{(N\!-\!1)} \sum_{i=1}^N \left(D_i-\tilde D\right)^2 ~} \approx 4.385140 \) (years)
In this model, the mean-square deviation of Duration of a new case from the estimate \(\tilde D\) is exacted to be of order of
\( \displaystyle \sigma = \sqrt{w^2+T^2} \approx 5.188568 \) (years)
Roughly, the Duration for a new case is expected to be of order of 13 years \(\pm\) 6 years.
For the research work on some new (and doubtful) topic, the «Two sigmas rule» is convenient. This gives the perdiction of duration for any new case to be between 2 years and 24 years.
Such an prediction is difficult to qualify as precise. Especially doubtful is the case, if, looking for some "three sigmas" one enters the area of negative values of Duration, that are difficult to interpret. For this reason, the consideration of the logarithmic scale may have sense. It is subject of the next section.
Model Second (Logarithmic scale)
The "true" distribution of Duration is not known. The poor statistics (only 5 cases) does not allow to plot the histogram (that would help to guess the distribution).
In the "Model First" above, the normal distribution of Duration is postulated. I thus section, another model is suggested.
Assume, that quantities \(L=\log_2(D)\) have independent identical normal distributions.
Now I repeat the calculus above for this model.
For \(~i\!>\!1~\), let \(~L_i\!=\!\log_2(L_i)~\).
Let \(L_0 \) be some "true" value for mean value of the binary logarithms of duration, matured in years.
However, the "true" mean value \(L_0 \) has no need to be the same as \(\log_2(L_0)\).
As quantity \(D\) appears as argument of logarithm, since now, the choice of dimension is essential, and \(D\) appears as dimensionless quantity. Base 2 of the logarithm is chosen in order to have several grid lines in the graphics corresponding to the integer value of \(L\) and integer values of \(D\).
For sample of \(N\) observed values, the likelihood density \(F(L)\) for the \(L_0 \) to happen to have value \(L\) is expressed through the Student Distribution with \(N-1\) degrees of freedom:
\( \displaystyle F(L)=\frac{1}{V} \mathrm{Student}_{N-1}\!\left(\frac{L-\tilde L}{V}\right) \)
\( \displaystyle \tilde L = \frac{1}{N} \sum_{i=1}^N L_i \approx 3.659569\)
\( \displaystyle V = \sqrt{ \frac{1}{N(N\!-\!1)} \sum_{i=1}^N \left( L_i - \tilde L \right)^2 } \) \( \approx 0.228016 \)
The mean-square deviation of the estimate \(\tilde L\) from the "true" mean value \( L_0\) is expected to be of order of
\(\displaystyle W=V \sqrt{\mathrm{Dispersion}_N} = V \sqrt{\frac{N-1}{N-3}} \) \( \displaystyle = \sqrt{ \frac{1}{N(N\!-\!3)} \sum_{i=1}^N \left(L_i-\tilde L\right)^2 ~} \approx 0.322463 \)
Any new observes binary logarithm of Duration is expected to deviate from the "true mean value \(L_0\) for quantity of order of
\( \displaystyle \ell = \sqrt{ \frac{1}{N\!-\!1} \sum_{i=1}^N \left( L_i - \tilde L \right)^2 } \) \( \approx 0.509859 \)
The mean square deviation of the binary logarithm of Duration for a new case from the estimated value \(\tilde L\) is estimated as
\( s=\sqrt{W^2+\ell^2} \approx 0.603273 \)
In terms of Duration, this gives the following estimates:
\( \begin{array}{lcr} \exp_2(\tilde L-2 s)&=&5.475622 ~ \mathrm{(years)}\\ \exp_2(\tilde L-s)&=&8.318341 ~ \mathrm{(years)}\\ \exp_2(\tilde L)&=&12.636883 ~ \mathrm{(years)}\\ \exp_2(\tilde L+s)&=&19.197436 ~ \mathrm{(years)}\\ \exp_2(\tilde L+2 s)&=&29.163958 ~ \mathrm{(years)}\\ \end{array} \)
In such a way, the Duration of any new case is expected to be no shorter than 8 years and no longer than 20 years.
Taking into account the phenomenological character of the model, the Two sigmas criterion should be applied.
In this model, at the significance level 95%, Duration of a new case is expected to be no less than 5 years and no longer than 30 years.
As in the Model First, the estimate for the Duration happens to be not so precise.
Discussion
Both models above give similar estimates for the expected duration of any new case:
Model First: | \( \tilde D \) | \( \approx 13.249838\) (years) |
Model Second: | \( \exp_2(\tilde L) \) | \(\approx 12.636883\) (years) |
Both the models above suggest that after approximately 13 years since the Federal Law breaks the principle of separation of powers, the republic, empire collapse and the administrative system has to be reinstalled.
Several decimal digits are kept in the estimates above in order to simplify the tracing of calculations. Colleagues may repeat the calculus and get the same values. However, only the firs one or two digits have some predictive sense.
The precision of the predictions is not too good. the error of the estimate of the duration happens to be comparable to its value.
Perhaps, adding of new cases can slightly improve the statistics; improving the precision of the estimate \(\tilde D\) of some "true mean value" \(D_0\).
Adding of new cases cannot significantly reduce the uncertainty of the estimate of the mean value of Duration within the model.
However, the precision of prediction of Duration for any new case remain to be several years.
In such a way, we seem to reach the limit of the models.
The improvement of the precision of the forecast seem to require taking into account other parameters of an empire, that pretending to be a republic eliminates the Separation of powers. The phenomenological modeling could be performed if more cases are added to Table 1.
The prediction of Duration in the models suggested is not so high. Several digit are kept in the estimates in order to simplify the tracing of the calculus described.
Practically, the results the both models are similar. Since the elimination of Separation of powers, the state lasts from few years to a couple of tens of gears.
The low precision is typical for primitive models.
The estimate for collapse of USSR by Andrei Alalrik [20] also happened to be not so precise; the relative error of the prediction happens to be or order its half. In 1969, Amalrik expected the USSR to collapse before 1984 (1984-1969=15 (years)) while it collapsed, roughly, in 1991, id est, lasted 22 years (1991-1969=22) instead of 15 yeas.
Attempts of usurpation of power are observed in various epochs and in various countries. Stable democracies can resist it.
The attempt of American President to break the American Constitution and to serve the third residential term (see «CivilWar2024» and «TrumpForever») can be considered
[23][24]. Such a destruction of the Constitution can be interpreted as elimination of Separation of powers, (cutting the three of separated branches of power: Executive, Legislative, Judicial) as it is shown in the cartoon at right.
At the moment of preparation of this article,
no document is found to confirm the successful passing of such a project through the legislative system of the USA.
In sigh a way, yet, within the models considered, no certain prediction about the collapse of USA can be formulated.
However, if success of the project «TrumpForever» in the USA Congress and the USA Senate, the American case falls into the area of applicability of the models suggested.
The same may refer to any other country. Up to my knowledge no such a model had been published preciously. The models above give a hint for construction and testing of other refutable historic models, based on various (and perhaps completely different from the above) observations. Upon the verification(s) with a posteriori observations, such a model(s) can be useful in the practical activity.
Conclusions
The ideology of construction of historical models is suggested.
The example is considered for Duration of the state since the federal law abandons the separation of powers, justifying the life-time dictatorship juridically.
Duration is defined as time between the two events:
1. The federal law of an empire eliminates the previously declared separation of powers.
2. The empire collapses, its political and administrative system is reinstalled.
For Duration, the 6 examples are mentioned in Table 1.
At the moment of loading of the article, the last, 6th case is not yet completed,
but it can be used for testing the models suggested.
The two models are considered
with the normal distribution of Duration and
with the normal distribution of logarithm of Duration.
Both the model give similar prediction for Duration; it is expected to be of order of 13 years.
The likelihood distribution density \(f(t)\) for the mean Duration \(D_0\) to have value \(t\) and
The likelihood distribution density \(F(L)\) for the binary logarithm of Duration to have mean value \(L\)
are shown in the figures.
According to these models, the putin's RF is expected to collapse approximately in year 2033.
The expected error of this forecast is estimated to be several years.
In such a way, the uncertainty of the prediction of Duration happens to be of order of magnitude of the duration. The collapse of RF before year 2042 should be considered as confirmation of both models. The existing of RF after year 2050 should be considered as an evidence of a need to revise both the models.
Warning
Article Duration5 is loaded at TORI with scientific goals.
Politics and affection of decisions of powerful offees of any country is not element o the set of these goals.
The analysis above is not an attempt to influence policy of any country.
In the case of RF, after the nulling of the Constitution in 2020, perhaps, already nothing can be done;
since 2020, the big war was unavoidable.
In the case of the USA, if Americans decide to convert the peaceful democratic USA to an aggressive monarchy, to destroy the USA
[25][26][27],
then no scientific analysis can help them.
However, even in this case, Editor keeps his right (and even duty) to call things with their proper names, to suggest definitions for euphemisms and other ambiguous terms, to construct historic models and to compare their predictions to a posteriori observations.
References
- ↑ https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oliver_Cromwell_by_Samuel_Cooper.jpg Oliver Cromwell (1599-1658) After Samuel Cooper (1609–1672)
- ↑ https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Buonaparte_closing_the_farce_of_Egalité.jpg Buonaparte closing the farce of Egalitè, at St. Cloud near Paris Novr. 10th. 1799
- ↑ https://ja.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Benito_Mussolini_portrait_as_dictator_(retouched).jpg Portrait of Benito Mussolini as dictator of Italy (between 1922 and 1943), published in 1943 for conmemorate his 60th birthday.
- ↑ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/putin-defends-molotov-ribbentrop-pact-says-it-was-the-west-not-russia-that-appeased-hitler-2019-12-20 Putin defends Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, says it was the West, not Russia, that appeased Hitler// Associated Press Published: Dec. 20, 2019 at 1:56 p.m. ET
- ↑ https://nickmix01.livejournal.com/276909.html Записки работающего тунеядца. November 9th, 2014, 09:42 am. Свободу советским евреям! 1978. Три снимка 1978 года с митинга Greater New York Conference on Soviet Jewry перед офисом "Аэрофлота" Сбор подписей в поддержку петиции о свободном выезде. .. А какие у них были плакаты! Просто шик! Ручная работа. Original filename: https: //i.imgur.com/ZCnZMGj.jpg
- ↑ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64992727 Putin arrest warrant issued over war crime allegations. 2023.03.18.
- ↑ «Duration» is precious version. Here, one more row is added in the main table. This slightly displace the main predictions. Number 5 at the end of the title indicates that 5 historical cases are taken into account. In addition, the model with normal distribution of logarithm of Duration is added.
- ↑ Jump up to: 8.0 8.1 https://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/j.p.boulton/his211instrument1653.htm Modern History Sourcebook: Commonwealth Instrument of Government, 1653 .. The Instrument of Government is important in the history of written constitutions. It was adopted by Cromwell and his Council of Officers on December 16, 1653, and under it Cromwell assumed the office of Lord Protector. When the Parliament for which it provides met in September, 1654, it passed a constitution of which the Instrument was the basis. .. XXXIII. That Oliver Cromwell, Captain - General of the forces of England, Scotland and Ireland, shall be, and is hereby declared to be, Lord Protector of the Commonwealth of England, Scotland and Ireland, and the dominions thereto belonging, for his life. ..
- ↑ Jump up to: 9.0 9.1 https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/coronations/historical-coronations-highlights/coronation-expenses-part-1/ Record of plans for Charles II’s state procession through London, and the expenses arising from the procession and coronation [23 April 1661] (AO 1/2022/5A).
- ↑ Jump up to: 10.0 10.1 https://fr.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_du_13_décembre_1799 CONSTITUTION DE LA RÉPUBLIQUE FRANÇAISE Du 22 FRIMAIRE AN VIII ( 13 décembre 1799) .. Article 39.// Le gouvernement est confié à trois consuls nommés pour dix ans, et indéfiniment rééligibles.// Chacun d'eux est élu individuellement, avec la qualité distincte ou de premier, ou de second, ou de troisième consul.// La Constitution nomme Premier consul le citoyen Bonaparte, ex-consul provisoire ; second consul, le citoyen Cambacérès, ex-ministre de la Justice ; et troisième consul, le citoyen Lebrun, ex-membre de la commission du Conseil des Anciens. ..
- ↑ Jump up to: 11.0 11.1 https://fr.wikisource.org/wiki/Traité_de_Paris_(1815) Traité de paix signé à Paris le 20 novembre 1815 entre la France d’une part, l’Autriche, la Grande-Bretagne, la Prusse et la Russie de l’autre. Amyot, éditeur des archives diplomatiques, 1864 (2, p. 664-670).
- ↑ Jump up to: 12.0 12.1 https://it.wikisource.org/wiki/L._17_maggio_1928,_n._1094_-_Istituzione_dell%27Azienda_autonoma_statale_della_strada L. 17 maggio 1928, n. 1094 Istituzione dell'Azienda autonoma statale della strada Regno d'Italia
- ↑ Jump up to: 13.0 13.1 https://olympus.uniurb.it/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10322:1947costituzione&catid=5&Itemid=137 COSTITUZIONE DELLA REPUBBLICA ITALIANA. G.U. 27 dicembre 1947, n. 298
- ↑ Jump up to: 14.0 14.1 https://www.1000dokumente.de/index.html?c=dokument_de&dokument=0006_erm Gesetz zur Behebung der Not von Volk und Reich [«Ermächtigungsgesetz»], 24. März 1933 Zusammenfassung// Das Gesetz zur Behebung der Not von Volk und Reich vom 24. März 1933, mit dem der deutsche Reichstag der Regierung Adolf Hitlers eine pauschale Befugnis zur Gesetzgebung übertrug, bildete neben der «Reichstagsbrandverordnung» vom 28. Februar 1933 das grundlegende verfassungsrechtliche Instrument des NS-Staates. «Das Ermächtigungsgesetz», das zunächst auf vier Jahre begrenzt war und dann mehrfach verlängert wurde, griff formal auf die bereits in der Weimarer Republik entwickelte Praxis weitgefaßter Ermächtigungen zurück. Im Unterschied hierzu besaß es freilich einen konsequent antiparlamentarischen Charakter und diente so zur Zerstörung des Weimarer Verfassungsgefüges. Das Ermächtigungsgesetz von 1933 gilt daher als Symbol für die Selbstausschaltung des deutschen Parlamentarismus gegenüber dem Machtanspruch der Nationalsozialisten.
- ↑ Jump up to: 15.0 15.1 https://www.lpb-bw.de/kriegsende Landeszentrale für politische Bildung BW8. Mai 1945: Kriegsende Zweiter Weltkrieg: Kriegsende am 8. Mai 1945. Am 8. Mai 1945 endet der zweite Weltkrieg. Als die Waffen endlich schwiegen, waren mehr als 60 Millionen Menschen tot.
- ↑ Jump up to: 16.0 16.1 http://www.hist.msu.ru/ER/Etext/cnst1977.htm КОНСТИТУЦИЯ (Основной Закон) СОЮЗА СОВЕТСКИХ СОЦИАЛИСТИЧЕСКИХ РЕСПУБЛИК// Принята на внеочередной седьмой сессии Верховного Совета СССР девятого созыва 7 октября 1977 г. .. Статья 6. Руководящей и направляющей силой советского общества, ядром его политической системы, государственных и общественных организаций является Коммунистическая партия Советского Союза. .. Статья 39. .. Использование гражданами прав и свобод не должно наносить ущерб интересам общества и государства,..
- ↑ Jump up to: 17.0 17.1 https://estonianworld.com/life/estonia-celebrates-the-day-of-restoration-of-independence Einar Vära. Estonia celebrates the 30th anniversary of the restoration of independence. Estonian World, August 20, 2021. .. On 20 August 1991, Estonia declared formal independence during the Soviet military coup attempt in Moscow, reconstituting the pre-1940 state; ..
- ↑ Jump up to: 18.0 18.1 http://duma.gov.ru/en/news/48039/ What changes will be in the Constitution of the Russian Federation? March 12, 2020, 15:04. On 11 March the State Duma adopted the third and final reading of the amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation. On the same day these amendments were approved by the Federation Council. On 22 April the national vote on proposed amendments is scheduled in Russia. In our material you will find out the most noticeable and important amendments to the current Constitution of the Russian Federation {\it.. The Federal Assembly also supported the amendment to nullify the presidential term. ..}
- ↑ https://biblehub.com/genesis/15-13.htm .. Lamsa Bible// And the LORD said to Abram, Know of a surety that your descendants shall be strangers in a land that is not theirs, and shall be in servitude: and they shall afflict them for four hundred years; ..
- ↑ Jump up to: 20.0 20.1 https://www2.stetson.edu/~psteeves/classes/amalrik1.html WILL THE SOVIET UNION SURVIVE UNTIL 1984 by Andrei Amalrik (1969)
- ↑ Jump up to: 21.0 21.1 https://oceanofpdf.com/Fetching_Resource.php Full Book Name: Moscow 2042 Author Name: Vladimir Voinovich Book Genre: Cultural, Dystopia, Fiction, Literature, Russia, Russian Literature, Science Fiction ISBN # 9780156621656 Date of Publication: 1987– PDF / EPUB File Name: Moscow_2042_-_Vladimir_Voinovich.pdf, Moscow_2042_-_Vladimir_Voinovich.epub PDF File Size: 1.8 MB EPUB File Size: 424 KB .. 1986 ..
- ↑ Jump up to: 22.0 22.1 https://boo.zone/russia-2028.html Аудиокнига «Россия 2028» автора Семёна Скрепецкого. Книга повествует о приключениях порядочного земелекопа в постапокалиптической России. Кстати да, в книге много философии, нотки Борхеса. Внимание : в книге присутствует ненормативная лексика. Автор: Семён Скрепецкий Чтец: Семён Скрепецкий Композитор: Семён Скрепецкий Год выпуска: 2019 Жанр: Фантастика, постапокалипсис, сатира Продолжительность: 03:17:51 (Only the Russian version (Россия2028) is found in the free access.)
- ↑ https://stanfordreview.org/civil-war-review/ 'Civil War' Review: Is This America's Future? Minor spoilers ahead! JACK KOMAROFF April 24, 2024 . 7:55 PM // America is on fire. Or, at least it is in A24’s latest feature film, Civil War (2024). In the Alex Garland war flick, set in the near-present, we see a vision of the nation where a violent civil war has broken out between the Loyalist States, the Western Forces (an unlikely pairing of Texas and California), and the Florida Alliance. // The film does not give the viewer much information about the catalyst for this catastrophic war, only hinting that the film’s fictitious President (Nick Offerman) broke with precedent by taking a third term. Instead, it drops us directly into the middle of a country that bears only a passing resemblance to the USA that we currently call home. In Garland’s world, paramilitary units enforce their own laws, journalists are shot on sight in the capitol, and cellular service is suppressed. To quote Charles Dickens, “it [i]s the worst of times.”
- ↑ https://ogles.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-ogles-proposes-amending-22nd-amendment-allow-trump-serve-third-term Rep. Ogles Proposes Amending the 22nd Amendment to Allow Trump to Serve a Third Term Image January 23, 2025
- ↑ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjfgHZdZuVI Почему Америка должна спасать СЕБЯ Mark Solonin Jul 23, 2024
- ↑ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHYbhlHltRw Америка собралась самоубиться? Беседа с профессором Знаменским. Mark Solonin. Aug 21, 2024.
- ↑ https://theconversation.com/why-annexing-canada-would-destroy-the-united-states-249561 Why annexing Canada would destroy the United States Published: February 11, 2025 5.07pm GMT As United States President Donald Trump relentlessly threatens to annex Canada, some Canadians are worried that an American invasion could one day become a reality. // How would that scenario play out? Looking at the sheer size of the American military, many people might believe that Trump would enjoy an easy victory. // That analysis is wrong. If Trump ever decides to use military force to annex Canada, the result would not be determined by a conventional military confrontation between the Canadian and American armies. Rather, a military invasion of Canada would trigger a decades-long violent resistance, which would ultimately destroy the United States.
Keywords
«[[]]», «Bridging Probability Theory and Statistical Estimation», «Duration», «Duration5»,