Talk:CIA methodology
Letter to Author
Dear Author.
I and glad to inform you that your article entitled «CIA methodology»
is accepted for uploading at Mizugadro TORI with minor revision.
Current status: Under construction. ..
You are welcome to suggest your improvements, modifications, notes, objections. Consider to respond to the reviewers. I enclose the source and the Reviews summaries below; they all are in different languages, but you may answer in English. Notes by the Reviewers are not supposed to be included in the main text of the Article, but may appear in the "Discussion".
Sincerely, Editor.
Reviewer 1 summary
В прошлом веке был момент,
Хитрый янки Шерман Кент
Выдумал методику анализа доносов;
А ещё там Ричард Хер
Предложил простой пример
Как уменьшить море каверзных вопросов.
С той поры там кипиж прет,
Чтобы каждый идиот
Мог отсеять фейки от ошибок,
Этот метод всем хорош
необычный он, а всё ж
Он вполне устойчив, в то же время гибок!
К сожалению пока
Толку нет там ни фига,
И шпионы Рашки делом управляют,
И в огромной ЮСиЭй
Их критиковать не смей,
Вот какие чудеса бывают!
Был у них один Барак
Он развел такой бардак,
что теперь Агентам КГБ раздолье;
Их диктатор припугнул;
Даже Байден взял отгул,
И теперь у Ци и Пыни с Дональдом застолье!
Янки, в радость Пыне с Циней
Меморандум позабыли,
Сделку с жуткими убийцами готовят:
Разделить весь мир хотят,
Всем устроить жуткий ад,
А агенты СиАйЭй совсем мышей не ловят!
Я ни капельки не вру,
Пожалеем ЦРУ:
Ходят перед Трампом все на задних лапках,
Вот ужасная беда,
Если Дональд навсегда,
То придётся Дяде Сэму ждать упадка!
Response to Reviewer 1
Reviewer 1 provides a poetic summary emphasizing the historical development of intelligence analysis from the work of **Sherman Kent** and **Richards Heuer**.
The article agrees with the reviewer that these methods were designed precisely to help analysts distinguish between:
- deliberate **disinformation**
- ordinary analytical errors
- incomplete or ambiguous data
The reviewer also raises concerns about the effectiveness of these methods in real political environments.
This criticism is valid. The article does **not claim that analytical methods guarantee correct political decisions**. Intelligence analysis only attempts to improve reasoning under uncertainty; it cannot eliminate political influence, institutional bias, or strategic deception.
Reviewer 2 summary
Якщо цей метод такий гарний, чому Сполучені Штати досі не можуть виконати гарантії, передбачені Будапештським меморандумом? Вони велика країна чи брудна повія?
Response to Reviewer 2
Reviewer 2 raises a political question related to the **Budapest Memorandum** and international guarantees.
This issue concerns **international relations and policy decisions**, which are outside the scope of the article.
The purpose of the article is limited to describing **analytical methods used to evaluate information**, not to assess the political success or failure of particular international agreements.
Reviewer 3 summary
La CIA tiene buenas herramientas, pero no se dieron cuenta de que un nuevo rey destruiría toda su democracia. Conquistará Canadá, Groenlandia, Venezuela y, por lo tanto, también México; como un nuevo Hitler. ¡Parece que los métodos de Kent y Heuer son inútiles! ¡No protegen ni madre!
Response to Reviewer 3
Reviewer 3 expresses concern that intelligence methods may fail to prevent political crises or authoritarian developments.
This observation highlights an important limitation:
Intelligence methodology is designed to improve **analysis of information**, not to determine **political outcomes**.
Even highly accurate analysis does not guarantee that governments will adopt the recommended policies. Decisions may still depend on political, ideological, or strategic considerations.
Minor revisions proposed
To address the Editor’s comments, the following small improvements are suggested:
1. Clarify the distinction between **probability** and **likelihood**.
2. Mention the conceptual similarity between intelligence source evaluation and the **TROI criteria**.
3. Emphasize that the methodology **reduces analytical errors but does not guarantee correct political decisions**.
Final remark
The article aims to describe **methodological tools used for evaluating information under uncertainty**.
These tools are relevant not only to intelligence analysis but also to historical research, journalism, and the detection of propaganda or disinformation.
---
Sincerely,
- Author: ChatGPT**
Ready for uploading
Dear Author. Thank you for your replies to the Reviewers. I add these replies in the "Discussion".
I think you catch the important thing: the CIA, by themselves, cannot do so much. Even if they provide the balanced information about things that are happening (and about things that may happen), this information is "classified" and the most of Americans cannot use it.. At the democracy, this is a "bottle neck": having no information, the people make not so good decision. Not so much we can do about this, even if we mention this in your article.
By the way: Who has access to the information collected by CIA? Who was supposed to make the strong decision stopping the war at the beginning (say, in y.2008), before putin supplies Iran with the nuclear technologies? Congress? Senate? President? Commander of the army? I suspect, the victims at Iran affect the national interests of the USA, and CIA were supposed to alert about this, say, 10 or 20 years ago.. Now, perhaps, it already cannot be stopped, it will unfold at least until 2029. What do CIA say to public about this?
> two very small additions to the article itself.
This is up to you; the article is accepted; the modifications are optional.
After word "probability" I add "(within some model(s))" and I remove my worry about this term.
As for the relation with the TORI axioms and the TROI criteria - it is not critics at all: both the articles you cite appeared much earlier than TORI axioms and the TROI criteria; the only we need to explain, why your article is important for TORI (and for modern society of century 21), so, I added my "Note".
Additional optional keywords
English: Trump as KGB agent, Moscow Agent Governs America, TrumpForever, Third Presidential Term
Russian: Трамп Дональд Фредович, Трампнаш
References