File:2021.12.07.CovidRussiaD.png

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Covid death toll in Russia versus time \(T\) measured in days:

Curve by Worldometer [1], orange strip.

Curve by values by Ourworldindata [2], black line

and the three approximations (pessimistic, red; intermediate, green and optimistic, blue).

Generator

For generation of the picture, the screenshot 2021.12.06.CovidRussiaWd.png by Worldometer [1]
should be saved as 2021.12.06.CovidRussiaWd.png
Worldometer provides no table of values shown in the picture; so, for the comparison, the screenshot is used.

Values by urworldindata [2] should be saved as owid-covid-data.csv

Then, the input table can be extracted with command

grep Russia ../owid-covid-data.csv |cut -d, -f 3,4,8 > Russia.txt

Then, the PHP program below can be executed: 

<!DOCTRINE html><html><body><small>
<?php
$j0=juliantojd(1, 1, 2020);
for($T=0;$T<1001;$T++) $P[$T]=0;

$myfile = fopen("Russia.txt", "r") or die("Unable to open file!");
for($i=0;$i<1001;$i++){ $g=fgets($myfile);
                        $h=explode(",",trim($g));
                        $s=count($h); if($s<2) break;
                        $s=strlen($h[2]);
                        $f=explode("-",$h[1]); 
                        $j=juliantojd($f[1], $f[2], $f[0]);
                        if($s>1){ $T=$j-$j0; // echo "$h[1] $t $h[2] ";
                                  $u=sscanf($h[2],"%d"); $v=$u[0];    // echo $v,"<br>\n";
                                  $P[$T]=$v; }
                }
fclose($myfile);
$U=$T+1; echo "Russia death tall for U=$U days<br>";   //  for($T=0;$T<$U;$T++) { echo "$T,$P[$T] <br>" ;}

echo "<svg width='852'; height='500';>";
#echo "<image x='26' y='8' preserveAspectRatio='none' width='712' height='792' xlink:href='2021.12.06.bd7.png'/>";
#echo "<image x='26' y='8' preserveAspectRatio='none' width='712' height='392' xlink:href='2021.12.06.CovidRussiaWd.png'/>";
#echo "<image x='26' y='10' preserveAspectRatio='none' width='730' height='424' xlink:href='2021.12.06.CovidRussiaWd.png'/>";
echo "<image x='27' y='10' preserveAspectRatio='none' width='728' height='420' xlink:href='2021.12.06.CovidRussiaWd.png'/>";
$L=40;
$B=320;
for($y=0;$y<301;$y+=50){$x1=$L+100; $x2=$L+800; $Y=$B-$y;
			echo "<line x1=$x1 y1=$Y x2=$x2 y2=$Y stroke='black' stroke-width='.6'/>\n";}

$y=300; $Y=$B+4-$y; echo "<text transform='translate(0,$Y)'>300k </text> \n";
$y=200; $Y=$B+4-$y; echo "<text transform='translate(0,$Y)'>200k </text> \n";
$y=100; $Y=$B+4-$y; echo "<text transform='translate(0,$Y)'>100k </text> \n";
$y=0  ; $Y=$B+4-$y; echo "<text text-anchor='end' transform='translate(11,$Y)'> 0 </text> \n";

for($t=0;$t<4;$t++){    $T=365.25*$t; $X=$L+$T;
                        echo "<line x1=$X y1=$B x2=$X y2=0 stroke='RGB(0,255,0)' stroke-width='2'/>\n"; }

for($T=0;$T<801;$T+=10){$X=$L+$T; $Y1=$B; $Y2=$B-300;
 echo "<line x1=$X y1=$Y1 x2=$X y2=$Y2 stroke='black' stroke-width='.5'/>\n"; }

$B4=$B+4;
for($T=0;$T<801;$T+=50){$X=$L+$T;
			$X1=$L+$T+1;
			$Xp=$X+5;
			$j=$j0+$T;
			$d0=jdtojulian($j);
			$d1=explode("/",$d0);
			$text=sprintf("%04d.%02d.%02d",$d1[2],$d1[0],$d1[1]);
			$tex=sprintf("%d",$T);
			$B1=$B-40;
			$B2=$B+14;
			echo "<line x1=$X y1=30 x2=$X y2=$B4 stroke='RGB(255,0,255)' stroke-width='.9' />\n";
			echo "<text text-anchor='middle' transform='translate($Xp,$B1) rotate(-90)'>$text</text> \n";
			echo "<text text-anchor='middle' transform='translate($X1,$B2)'>$tex</text> \n"; }

echo "<polyline points='\n";
for($T=0;$T<$U;$T++) {  $X=$L+$T;
                        $Y=$B - 0.001 * $P[$T]; 
                        echo "$X,$Y "; }
echo "'"; echo " style='fill:none;stroke:#000;stroke-width:1.6' /> \n";

echo "<polyline points='\n"; 
for($T=0;$T<811;$T++) { $X=$L+$T; 
                        $t=$T/365.25;
                        $Y=$B - 0.001 *60000*$t*$t*sqrt($t); 
                        echo "$X,$Y "; }
echo "'"; echo " style='fill:none;stroke:#f00;stroke-width:1' /> \n";

echo "<polyline points='\n"; 
for($T=0;$T<811;$T+=10) { $X=$L+$T; 
                        $t=$T/365.25;
                        $Y=$B - 0.001 *55000*$t*$t*sqrt($t); 
                        echo "$X,$Y "; }
echo "'"; echo " style='fill:none;stroke:#0a0;stroke-width:1' /> \n";

echo "<polyline points='\n"; 
for($T=0;$T<811;$T+=10) { $X=$L+$T; 
                        $t=$T/365.25;
                        $Y=$B - 0.001 *50000*$t*$t*sqrt($t); 
                        echo "$X,$Y "; }
echo "'"; echo " style='fill:none;stroke:#00f;stroke-width:1' /> \n";

echo "</svg>";
echo "</small>\n";
?>
</body>
</html>

There is some problem with the size of font. For compatibility, the screenshot of the resulting picture is loaded.

Approximations

Data by Worldometer and by Ourwordiindata show reasonable agreement: the deviation seem to be smaller than the width of the orange strip. For this reason, the approximations refer to both these curves.

The three approximations are the power function

\( f(t) = c\, t^{5/2} \)

where \( t=T/365.25\) is time measured in years since 2020.01.01.

The three curves correspond to the following three values of the parameter

\( c = 60000 \)

\( c = 55000 \)

\( c = 50000 \)

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/ World / Countries / Russia Last updated: December 06, 2021, 11:05 GMT .. Total Coronavirus Deaths in Russia
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv 2021 Dec 7 23:14 JST

File history

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Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
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